V. V. Perskaya, F. I. Arzhaev, Ya. Wang. System Assessment of the International “North-South” Transport Corridor’ Trans-Caspian Route Based on Dynamic Standard Model

doi: 10.15507/2413-1407.127.032.202402.308-325

UDК 338.2:339.142

Abstract

Introduction. Assessing the volume and structure of trade, particularly in multimodal transportation, is a challenging task, especially when the aim of such an assessment is to identify bottlenecks and remove them. Methodological approaches for solving such problems can vary significantly and include rather complex techniques such as object-oriented programming and network models, allowing to reflect the discrete character of tradeflow. Nevertheless, considering the significant role of international transportation infrastructure in the modern global economy, solving this problem appears relevant and has practical significance. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a discrete, high-frequency evaluation of the volume of goods transit along the Trans-Caspian corridor of the International “North-South” Transport Corridor, whereas the objective is the trade volume along this route.

Materials and Methods. The methodology of this work consists of two components – data processing and analysis and model construction, based on the standard dynamic model. The first component is necessary due to the limited character of data on goods transported via the International “North-South” Transport Corridor. In the second part of the study, the corridor is divided into several sections and the changes in the turnover for each section are analyzed using the dynamic standard method.

Results. The barriers to the development of the Trans-Caspian Corridor and the interests of participants in its operation are assessed. A toolkit for evaluating the performance of the corridor is created, considering the bottle neck in the transportation of goods via Iran. Statistical data are processed, and problematic times and sections of the corridor are identified. Recommendations on the development of the Trans-Caspian and international transport corridors in modern conditions are formulated.

Discussion and Conclusion. The main results and conclusions of this study include the authorsʼ system for monitoring and regulating the flow of goods along the corridor; identifying imbalances in the operation of the Trans-Caspian Corridor and International “North-South” Transport Corridor as a system; and possible solutions to align these imbalances. Recommendations for the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor and the International “North-South” Transport Corridor in modern conditions. This study has practical implications for logistics companies, financial institutions, Russian exporters, and authorities of economic blocs.

Keywords: International “North-South” Transportation Corridor, dynamic standard model, Trans-Caspian corridor, efficiency of goods flow, international trade, cargo transportation

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

For citation: Perskaya V.V., Arzhaev F.I., Wang Ya. System Assessment of the International “North-South” Transport Corridor’ Trans-Caspian Route Based on Dynamic Standard Model. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2024;32(2):308–325. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.127.032.202402.308-325

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About the authors:

Victoria V. Perskaya, Dr.Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Director of the Institute for International Economic Relations Research at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49 Leningradskiy Prospekt, Moscow 125993, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1988-4374, Researcher ID: HII-7219-2022, Scopus ID: 57197793892, vprofessor7970@gmail.com

Fedor I. Arzhaev, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher at the Institute for Research on International Economic Relations of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49 Leningradskiy Prospekt, Moscow 125993, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2986-3235, Researcher ID: KAZ-9367-2024, Scopus ID: 58037855500, arzhaevfedor@gmail.com

Yanming Wang, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Chief Specialist and Chairman of the Union of Investment and Trade with Russia and Central Asian Countries of Shenzhen University (3688 Nanhai Blvd., Nanshan, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province 518060, China), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8108-9354, Researcher ID: GXG-3765-2022, Scopus ID: 55734018900, infochina@mail.ru

Contribution of the authors:

V. V. Perskaya ‒ formulation of the problem; development of the concept of the article; formation of the conclusions of the research.

F. I. Arzhaev ‒ statistical data collection; model development and implementation; tabular and graphical presentation of results; description of results.

Ya. Wang ‒ discussion of the results; literature review.

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the authors on reasonable request.

The authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 26.02.2024; revised 04.04.2024; accepted 10.04.2024.