L. N. Lipatova, V. N. Gradusova. State and Possibilities of Strengthening the Labor Potential of Russia (Based on the All-Russian Population Census 2020)

doi: 10.15507/2413-1407.128.032.202403.563-583

UDК 331:314(470+571)

Abstract

Introduction. The most complete information on the size and composition of the population is provided by continuous population censuses, which collect information necessary for the analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in the composition of the population and the labor force. The purpose of the study is to identify changes in the numerical composition, age structure, and qualitative parameters of the labor potential of the Russian population in the period between the All-Russian population censuses of 2010 and 2020, and to outline ways to strengthen it.

Materials and Methods. The study was based on the results of the All-Russian Population Censuses of 2010 and 2020, current accounting data and forecast calculations of Rosstat, publications of scientists engaged in research in the field of economic demography. The analysis of changes in the demographic development of the Russian Federation in the intercensal period was carried out using the methods of dynamic and structural analysis, and the generalization of the results of published scientific research was made on the basis of critical analysis. Quantitative parameters of the labor potential were estimated on the basis of indicators of the population of working age, employed in the economy, unemployed citizens and potential labor force.

Results. The main changes in the number and composition of the Russian population by age and education that occurred during the inter-census period have been established. The quantitative and qualitative parameters of the labor force are determined. The outstripping growth of the level of education of unemployed citizens and potential labor force in comparison with those employed in the economy has been revealed, which, with a high degree of depreciation of the active part of fixed assets and a large part of workplaces with harmful and dangerous working conditions, suggests the archaic nature of the Russian economy and the general discrepancy between its requests and the level of education of the population. Calculations have shown that due to the involvement of potential labor in public production, it will not be possible to solve the problem of labor shortage.

Discussion and Conclusion. In order to provide the Russian economy with the necessary labor force, it is suggested to consider the following options for increasing the working time fund: temporary increase in the retirement age for women, temporary decrease in the number of holidays, temporary decrease in the duration of paid leave, temporary increase in the length of the working week. The results of the research can be useful for scientists and representatives of public authorities dealing with demographic development, strategic planning, regional development, migration regulation, as well as for specialists in the field of personnel training.

Keywords: continuous population census, natural population movement, international migration, labor potential, economically active population, labor force, potential labor force, labor productivity, archaic structure of the economy

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

For citation: Lipatova L.N., Gradusova V.N. State and Possibilities of Strengthening the Labor Potential of Russia (based on the All-Russian Population Census 2020). Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2024;32(3):563–583. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.128.032.202403.563-583

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About the authors:

Lyudmila N. Lipatova, Dr.Sci. (Sociol.), Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Chair of Economics, North-West Institute of Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (57/43 Sredny Ave., Vasilyevsky Island, St. Petersburg 199178, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9357-6708, ln.lipatova@yandex.ru

Valentina N. Gradusova, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Chair of Management, North-West Institute of Management, North-West Institute of Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (57/43 Sredny Ave., Vasilyevsky Island, St. Petersburg 199178, Russian Federation), ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0829-4555, gradusova-vn@ranepa.ru

Contribution of the authors:

L. N. Lipatova – research initiation; collection and processing of statistical data; preparation of the initial version of the article.

V. N. Gradusova – literature review on the studied problems; critical analysis and revision of the text.

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 19.11.2023; revised 16.04.2024; accepted 29.04.2024.

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