S. N. Grinyaev. Rearming Europe by 2030: Challenges and Prospects

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202503.518-530 
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/dbhkyx 
УДК / UDC 355.2 (4)

Abstract

Introduction. The relevance of this research stems from the sharp increase in global instability and the shifting balance of power, which compel the European Union (EU) to reconsider its security strategies. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the EU’s military-strategic transformation in the context of its rearmament plans by 2030 and to assess the potential implications for international relations, particularly given the escalation of tensions with Russia, the United States, and the growing influence of China.

Materials and Methods. The study employs systemic analysis, comparative methodology, and expert assessments. The research is based on open-source materials, official EU documents (such as the White Paper on European Defence, the “Readiness 2030” Rearmament Plan, and the EU Internal Security Strategy), as well as analytical reports from leading Russian and international scholars. This methodological approach enabled the identification of key trends and constraints affecting the implementation of EU defense initiatives.

Results. The research reveals that the EU faces significant challenges, including limited resources, dependence on US technologies, internal economic disparities, and a lack of consensus on critical issues such as the formation of European nuclear forces. The analysis indicates that achieving the stated objectives by 2030 is questionable, and that current strategic initiatives require additional coordination and funding. Special attention is given to the risks posed to Russia and the broader implications for global stability

Discussion and Conclusion. The article concludes that the EU’s rearmament is not only a response to external threats but also an attempt to adapt to internal challenges. The practical significance of the study lies in providing an analytical foundation for forecasting the development of European defense policy and for devising response strategies for national and international actors. Future research should focus on the EU’s interactions with global powers (the US, China) and on assessing the impact of new initiatives on the architecture of international security. The study’s limitations include insufficient transparency of military budget data and uncertainty regarding political decision-making within the EU.

Keywords: European rearmament, international security, European Union, military-strategic autonomy, Readiness 2030, nuclear forces, EU economy, Russia, USA, China

Conflict of interest. The author declares no conflict of interest.

For citation: Grinyaev S.N. Rearming Europe by 2030: Challenges and Prospects. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2025;33(3):518–530. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202503.518-530

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About the author:

Sergey N. Grinyaev, Dr.Sci. (Engr.), Chief Researcher, Department of Country Studies, Center for Arctic Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences (11 Bldg. 3 Mokhovaya St., Moscow 125009, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6511-9553, Researcher ID: ADQ-8034-2022, Scopus ID: 57513756200, SPIN-код: 4645-8700, sgreen@csef.ru

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The author has read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 26.08.2024; revised 06.05.2025; accepted 13.05.2025.