A. D. Lisenkova. Electoral Success in East Germany (2024) and Subsequent Decline of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202503.500-517
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/cymfra
УДК / UDC 323 (430) ISSN 2587-8549

Abstract

Introduction. At the turn of 2023-2024, the creation of the the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (SWA) changed the balance of power in Germany's party system, especially in the eastern states. The aim of this study is to explain the factors behind the SWA's initial electoral success in the 2024 state and European elections in eastern Germany, as well as the reasons for its subsequent decline in support.

Materials and Methods. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of official election results in the state parliaments of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, the European Parliament (2019, 2024), and the Bundestag (2025). Electoral statistics before and after the emergence of the Alternative for Germany (AfG), 2019 and 2024, were compared. The dynamics of the party's popularity were examined using information from regular opinion polls conducted by leading German institutes (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, INSA). The AfG's policy documents and coalition agreements in the federal states were also taken into account.

Results. It is proved that the party was created at a favorable time of crisis, when elections in West Germany were not expected. Conservative and pro-Russian rhetoric criticizing migration and climate governance is most favorably perceived in the East. It was revealed that in 2024 the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice had a decisive influence on the decline in the ratings of the left, which once ruled in the GDR, although the Alternative for Germany had previously launched the process. It is determined that, despite the closeness of views on a number of issues between Sahra Wagenknecht and the more radical right-wing populists in the perception of citizens, their coalition cooperation is unlikely.

Discussion and Conclusion. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice has gained a foothold in East Germany. Nevertheless, the need to make concessions within the framework of the coalition partnership and disagreements with the leaders of the land offices had a negative impact on the rating. The results of the study can be applied in the activities of relevant departments dealing with political parties and electoral processes. Further changes on the left flank of the German party system are a promising area for the next research.

Keywords: the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice, the SWA, the Left Party, the Alternative for Germany, governing coalition, populism, party system in Germany, European elections, state elections, political crisis

Conflict of interest. The author declares no conflict of interest.

For citation: Lisenkova A.D. Electoral Success in East Germany (2024) and Subsequent Decline of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2025;33(3):500–517. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202503.500-517

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About the author:

Alena D. Lisenkova, Cand.Sci. (Polit.), Senior Researcher, Institute for International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (76 Prospekt Vernadskogo, Moscow 119454, Russian Federation); Senior Lecturer, Department of International Relations, North-West Institute of Management – Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (57/43 Srednii Prospekt V.O., St. Petersburg 199178, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2457-3466, Researcher ID: GRF-1214-2022, Scopus ID: 57878750700, SPIN-code: 1837-3284, alena.denisovna@yandex.ru

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The author has read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 21.04.2025; revised 19.06.2025; accepted 26.06.2025.