E. Ya. Pastukhova, E. A. Morozova. Excess Mortality in the Siberian Regions in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamics and Affecting Factors

UDК 314.145:616-36.21

DOI: 10.15507/2413-1407.120.030.202203.602-623

Abstract

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong negative impact on demographic processes in Russian regions. Mortality has increased significantly, the life expectancy has declined, and the natural decline in the population over the two pandemic years has reached ultra-high indicators. The article aims to analyze the dynamics of the mortality growth in the regions of Siberia for 2020–2021 and assess the impact of demographic, socio-economic, medical and infrastructure factors on it.

Materials and Methods. The study is based on official statistical data for individual constituent entities of Russia published by Rosstat (Russian Statistics Agency). The regression and correlation analysis was used to identify the most significant factors that determined the increase and interregional differences in mortality displacement rates.

Results. For the Siberian regions the significant factors that determine the increase and interregional differences in mortality displacement include the median age of the population; proportion of children in the age distribution structure; population of the regional capital; as well as the share of extractive and manufacturing industries in regional employment pattern. The median age of 39 and above, the low proportion of minors, and the specialization of a particular region in the manufacturing industry (implying more intensive contacts of employees) contribute to a significant increase in mortality during the pandemic. Regions of Siberia with a relatively low rate of mortality displacement have a younger age distribution structure and economic specialization in the extraction of minerals (contacts of the labor force are rather less frequent). The factors of urbanization level, average per capita income of the population, poverty incidence, general unemployment rate, number of hospital beds, and the number of doctors do not show a significant relationship with the increase in mortality.

Discussion and Conclusion. The analysis established the causes of a significant increase in mortality in the Siberian regions. The leading role in it was played by demographic factors and economic specialization of the region. The results obtained can be used in the implementation of social and demographic policy aimed at maintaining the population health in regions with different demographic and socio-economic situations.

Keywords: excess mortality, COVID-19 pandemic, demographic factors, regional employment, manufacturing industry, extractive industry, Siberian regions

Conflict of interests. The authors declare that there is not conflict of interest.

For citation: Pastukhova E.Ya., Morozova E.A. Excess Mortality in the Siberian Regions in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamics and Affecting Factors. RegionologyRussian Journal of Regional Studies. 2022;30(3):602–623. doi: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.120.030.202203.602-623

REFERENCES

1. Kuzmenko O., Vasilyeva T., Vojtovic, S. Why do Regions Differ in Vulnerability to COVID-19? Spatial Nonlinear Modeling of Social and Economic Patterns. Economics and Sociology. 2020;13(4):318–340. doi: https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2020/13-4/20

2. Kovacs S.Z., Koos B., Uzzoli A., Pager B., Egyed I. Regional Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses in Hungary. R-Economy. 2020;6(3):208–221. doi: https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2020.6.3.018

3. Zemtsov S.P., Baburin V.L. COVID-19: Spatial Dynamics and Diffusion Factors across Russian Regions. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Seriya geograficheskaya. 2020;(4):485–505. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620040159

4. Druzhinin P.V., Molchanova Е.V. The First and Second Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Russian Regions: Comparison of the Changes in the Mortality Rate. Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities and Social Sciences. 2021;14(7):1028–1038. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.17516/1997–1370–0782

5. Beaney T., Clarke J.M., Jain V., et al. Excess Mortality: the Gold Standard in Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 Worldwide? Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine. 2020;113(9):329–334. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0141076820956802

6. Kashepov A.V. Excess Mortality of the Population in 2020–2021. Vestnik Altaiskoi akademii ekonomiki i prava. 2021;(5-2):200–207. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.17513/vaael.1706

7. Leon D.A., Shkolnikov V.M., Smeeth L., Magnus P., Pechholdová M., Jarvis C.I. COVID-19: A Need for Real-Time Monitoring of Weekly Excess Deaths. The Lancet. 2020;395(10234). doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30933-8

8. Panin A.N., Rilskiy I.A., Tikunov V.S. Spatial Patterns of COVID-19 Distribution in Russia and the World: Cartographic Analysis. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya. 2021;(1):62–77. Available at: https://vestnik5.geogr.msu.ru/jour/article/view/810 (accessed 07.02.2022). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

9. Khasanova R.R., Zubarevich N.V. Birth Rate, Mortality and Situation of Regions at the Onset of the Second Wave of Pandemic. Russian Economic Development. 2021;28(1):77–87. Available at: http://www.edrussia.ru/en/archive/2021/1293-01-2021 (accessed 08.02.2022)(In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

10. Shchepin V.O., Khabriev R.U. The Characteristics of Population Mortality of the Russian Federation, the Central Federal Okrug and City of Moscow in 2020. Problems of Social Hygiene, Public Health and History of Medicine. 2021;29(2):189–193. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-2-189-193

11. Sabgayda T.P. The Structure of Excess Mortality Due to the Novel Coronavirus Infection Pandemic in Urban and Rural Residents. Social Aspects of Population Health. 2021;(5). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.21045/2071-5021-2021-67-5-1

12. Druzhinin P.V. [Concentration of Resources in the Capital of the Region and its Consequences]. Tendentsii razvitiya nauki i obrazovaniya. 2021;(79-3):34–36. (In Russ.) doi: https://doi.org/10.18411/trnio-11-2021-98

13. Makarova M.N., Pyshmintseva O.A. Excess Mortality in Russian Regions during the COVID-19 Pandemic. R-Economy. 2021;(4):225–234. doi: https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2021.7.4.020

14. Pradhan A., Olsson P.E. Sex Differences in Severity and Mortality from COVID-19: Are Males More Vulnerable? Biology of Sex Differences. 2020;11. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13293-020-00330-7

15. Shahid Z., Kalayanamitra R., McClafferty B., et al. COVID-19 and Older Adults: What We Know. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 2020;68(5):926–929. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.16472

16. Price G., Holn von E. The Effect of Social Distancing on the Early Spread of the Novel Coronavirus. Social Science Quarterly. 2021;102(5):2331–2340. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12988

17. Jain V., Singh L. Global Spread and Socio-Economic Determinants of Covid-19 Pandemic. Seoul Journal of Economics. 2020;33(4):561–600. doi: https://doi.org/10.22904/sje.2020.33.4.004

18. Martines M.R., Ferreira R.V., Toppa R.H., Assuncao L.M., Desjardins M.R., Delmelle E.M. Detecting Space-Time Clusters of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mortality, Inequality, Socioeconomic Vulnerability, and the Relative Risk of the Disease in Brazilian Municipalities. Journal of Geographical Systems. 2021;23:7–36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-020-00344-0

19. Bhaskaran K., Bacon S., Evans S.J.W., et al. Factors Associated with Deaths Due to COVID-19 versus Other Causes: Population-Based Cohort Analysis of UK Primary Care Data and Linked National Death Registrations within the Open SAFELY Platform. The Lancet Regional Health – Europe. 2021;6:100–109. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100109

20. Kashepov A.V. Factors and Economic Consequences of the Coronavirus Pandemic. Vestnik Altaiskoi akademii ekonomiki i prava. 2021;(2):38–45. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.17513/vaael.1595

21. Goldstein E.M. Factors Affecting Mortality for the Novel Coronavirus Infection in Different Regions of the Russian Federation. Journal of Microbiology, Epidemiology and Immunobiology. 2020;97(6):604–607. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.36233/0372-9311-2020-97-6-11

22. Goroshko N.V., Patsala S.V. Main Causes of Excess Mortality in Russia in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Social Aspects of Population Health. 2021;(6). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.21045/2071-5021-2021-67-6-1

23. Connolly C., Keil R., Ali S. H. Extended Urbanisation and the Spatialities of Infectious Disease: Demographic Change, Infrastructure and Governance. Urban Studies. 2021;58(2):245–263. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020910873

24. Druzhinin P.V., Molchanova E.V. Mortality Rates in Russian Regions in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Regionology. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2021;29(3):666–685. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.116.029.202103.666-685

25. Kapitsinis N. The Underlying Factors of the COVID-19 Spatially Uneven Spread. Initial Evidence from Regions in Nine EU Countries. Regional Science. Policy & Practice. 2020;12(6):1027–1045. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12340

26. Zubarevich N.V. Possibility of Decentralisation During the Year of Pandemic: What Does the Analysis of Public Budgets Reveal? Regional’nye issledovaniya. 2021;(1):46–57. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2021-1-4

27. Boytsov S.A. Influenza, Novel Coronavirus Infection and Cardiovascular Diseases. Russian Cardiology Bulletin. 2021;16(1):5–9. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.17116/Cardiobulletin2021160115

28. Stepanenkova N.M., Stepanenkova M.A. Assessment of the Socio-Economic Factors Impact on Demographic Processes in the Russian Federation. Creative Economy. 2022;16(2):771–786. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.18334/ce.16.2.114233

29. Pastukhova E.Ya. The COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Socio-Economic Development and Population Poverty: Evidence from Russia’s Regions. Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2022;20(3):467–492. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.24891/re.20.3.467

30. Pilyasov A.N., Zamyatina N.Yu., Kotov E.A. The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Russian Regions in 2020: Models and Reality. Economy of Region. 2021;17(4):1079–1095. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-4-3

Submitted 10.04.2022; approved after reviewing 19.05.2022; accepted for publication 30.05.2022.

About the authors:

Elena Ya. Pastukhova, Associate Professor, Department of Management, Kemerovo State University (6 Krasnaya St., Kemerovo 650000, Russian Federation), Cand. Sci. (Economics), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5518-1783, Researcher ID: V-5548-2017peau.13@yandex.ru

Elena A. Morozova, Head of Department of Management, Kemerovo State University (6 Krasnaya St., Kemerovo 650000, Russian Federation), Doc. Sci. (Economics), Professor, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2215-9808, Researcher ID: T-8767-2017morea@yandex.ru

Contribution of the authors:

E. Ya. Pastukhova – statement of the research problem; data analysis; preparation of the text of the article; carrying out calculations; formulation of research results and conclusions.

E. A. Morozova – data collection and analysis; preparation of the text of the article; drawing conclusions; critical analysis.

The authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.

To download article

Лицензия Creative Commons
All the materials of the "REGIONOLOGY" journal are available under Creative Commons «Attribution» 4.0