S. V. Arzhenovskiy, T. G. Sinyavskaya, V. M. Nikoghosyan. Assessment of the Climate Impact on the Economic Variables of Monetary Policy: Regional Approach

UDК 331.104.22

doi: 10.15507/2413-1407.122.031.202301.070-086

Abstract

Introduction. The relevance of quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variables on macroeconomic indicators of monetary policy according to Russian data in the regional aspect is due to the absence of such research. The purpose of the article is to perform a quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on key macroeconomic variables of monetary policy on panel data by Russian regions.

Materials and Methods. Russian regions were the subject of the study. For calculations, the authors have formed the information base for 79 regions of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2020 according to Rosstat. The applied methodology is based on the author’s approach, combining the use of factor analysis by region at fixed year and econometric modeling using integral factors obtained at the previous stage on the panel data by region. Econometric analysis was performed using a generalized method of moments and a two-stage systematic generalized method of moments.

Results. The significant impact of climate change on key macroeconomic variables controlled in the development and implementation of monetary policy measures – gross regional product and consumer price index – has been identified empirically. The research was based on econometric modeling.

Discussion and Conclusion. Objective climate change taking place in the Russian regions may adversely affect the economic situation, which requires intensification of implementation and development of measures aimed at improving the environmental situation: reduction of CO2 emissions, development and use of forest-saving technologies, etc. It is proposed to consider the climate situation in the implementation of monetary policy. The results of the research will be useful both in the development and implementation of regional policy, and for specialists, civil servants who plan to improve the territorial structure of the economic space of Russia in the long term.

Keywords: climate change, gross regional product, consumer price index, monetary policy, factor analysis, systemic generalized method of moments, panel data, Russian regions

Conflict of interests. The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest. The paper expresses solely the views of the authors, which may not coincide with the official position of the Bank of Russia. The Bank of Russia is not responsible for the content of this work.

For citation: Arzhenovskiy S.V., Sinyavskaya T.G., Nikoghosyan V.M. Assessment of the Climate Impact on the Economic Variables of Monetary Policy: Regional Approach. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2023;31(1):70–86. doi: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.122.031.202301.070-086

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Submitted 19.09.2022; revised 05.10.2022; accepted 17.10.2022.

Аbout the authors:

Sergey V. Arzhenovskiy, Dr. Sci. (Economics), Professor, Head Economist, Rostov Regional Division of the Southern Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (22a Sokolov ave., Rostov-on-Don 344006, Russian Federation); Department of Statistics, Econometrics and Risk Assessment, Rostov State University of Economics (69 Bolshaya Sadovaya St., Rostov-on-Don 344002, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8692-7883, Researcher ID: L-2758-2016, Scopus ID: 56685608200, sarzhenov@gmail.com

Tatiana G. Sinyavskaya, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Econometrics and Risk Assessment, Rostov State University of Economics (69 Bolshaya Sadovaya St., Rostov-on-Don 344002, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4120-9180, Scopus ID: 57210161952, sin-ta@yandex.ru

Vardan M. Nikogosyan, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Econometrics and Risk Assessment, Rostov State University of Economics (69 Bolshaya Sadovaya St., Rostov-on-Don 344002, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2963-5654, don15@mail.ru

Contribution of the authors:

S. V. Arzhenovskiy ‒ putting forward a scientific problem; formulation of the scientific hypothesis of the study; definition of research methodology; interpretation of the obtained results.

T. G. Sinyavskaya ‒ estimation of models; critical analysis of materials; interpretation of the obtained results.

V. M. Nikoghosyan ‒ collection and systematization of statistical data; estimation of models.

The authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.