Ch. I. Ildarhanova, V. N. Arkhangelskiy, G. N. Ershova. Structural and Timing Transformations of Fertility ‒ Threats to Demographic Security of the Republic of Tatarstan

UDК 314.15(470.41)

doi: 10.15507/2413-1407.126.032.202401.126-143

Abstract

Introduction. The relevance of the article is determined by the importance of assessing the determinants of fertility to determine the possible prospects for its change and the correct justification of the directions and measures of demographic policy aimed at increasing it. The aim of the study is to identify the determinants of fertility decline in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2020‒2022 in comparison with the pre-pandemic period and to predict their impact.

Materials and Methods. The authors have calculated and analyzed the dynamics of age-specific fertility rates in the Republic of Tatarstan. The influence of the structural factor and the factor of birth intensity, as well as the indirect factor ‒ age-specific marriage rates ‒ was estimated. Using the method of age movement, the dynamics of fertility and the impact of these factors on it up to 2042 were forecasted.

Results. The decrease in the total fertility rate in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2020‒2022 was due to changes in the sex and age structure of the population. The excess of the total fertility rate of the region over the indicators of the Volga Federal District and the Russian Federation is due to higher total coefficients for first and second births. The difference between the average number of first births for real generations and for calendar years is determined by temporal shifts associated with postponement of first births due to late entry into first marriage and registered marriages.

Discussion and Conclusion. It is predicted that the number of young people will decrease until 2028 and the number of births until 2031. The negative impact of the factor of the gender and age structure of the population will last until 2030, in the 2030s the structural factor will contribute to an increase in the overall fertility rate. The research results presented in the article can be used to determine hypotheses regarding fertility prospects when developing forecasts for demographic and socio-economic development. Correct assessment of the determinants of fertility provides grounds for the development of effective measures of demographic policy with regard to fertility.

Keywords: fertility in real generations, birth order, timing shifts in fertility, total and age-specific fertility, rates component analysis, index method, Republic of Tatarstan

Conflict of interests. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

For citation: Ildarhanova Ch.I., Arkhangelsky V.N., Ershova G.N. Structural and Timing Transformations of Fertility ‒ Threats to Demographic Security of the Republic of Tatarstan. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2024;32(1):126–143. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.126.032.202401.126-143

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Submitted 23.08.2023; revised 26.10.2023; accepted 07.11.2023.

About the authors:

Chulpan I. Ildarhanova, Dr.Sci. (Sociol.), Director, Family and Demography Center, Tatarstan Academy of Sciences (36a Levo-Bulachnaya St., Kazan 420111, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3992-0336, Researcher ID: N-6382-2016, chulpanildusovna@gmail.com

Vladimir N. Arkhangelsky, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher, Family and Demography Center, Tatarstan Academy of Sciences (36a Levo-Bulachnaya St., Kazan 420111, Russian Federation), Head of the Sector of Population Reproduction and Demographic Policy of the Center for the Study of Population Problems of the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119991, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7091-9632, Researcher ID: T-4845-2017, archangelsky@yandex.ru

Guzel N. Ershova, Cand.Sci. (History), Leading Researcher, Family and Demography Center, Tatarstan Academy of Sciences (36a Levo-Bulachnaya St., Kazan 420111, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6399-0521, ershova104@mail.ru

Contribution of the authors:

Ch. I. Ildarhanova – concept and design of the study; scientific leadership; development of methodology; critical analysis and revision of the text; approval of the final version of the article.

V. N. Arkhangelsky – development of methodology; data curation; formalized data analysis; preparation of the initial version of the text.

G. N. Ershova – preparation of the initial version of the text; visualization/presentation of data in the text.

The authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.