S. Ya. Suschiy. Northern Black – Azov Sea Region: Demographic and Economic Potential and Prospects of Economic Development of New Regions of Russia

doi: 10.15507/2413-1407.127.032.202402.345-367

UDК 314.04:314.143

Abstract

Introduction. The interstate transit of the Northern Black Sea ‒ Azov region, which took place under the conditions of the armed conflict, was associated with a large-scale geodemographic and socio-economic transformation of regional societies. The aim of the study is to investigate the available demographic resources and production potential of the Cherson and Zaporozhye Regions, to determine the most likely directions of their economic dynamics.

Materials and Methods. The analytical and empirical base of the study, in addition to scientific sources, included collections of statistics, as well as media publications documenting the demographic and economic dynamics of the studied regions in 2022–2023. The methodological basis was a systematic approach that allowed combining the methods used in demography, social and economic geography with elements of structural-functional approach and discourse analysis of information obtained from media publications.

Results. It was found that during the spring and summer of 2022, there was a significant decrease in the available population of both areas as a result of outmigration. Moreover, the losses of the urban population were higher than those of the rural population. The maximum population losses were suffered by the Dnieper cities and the settlement network of the frontline zone of the Zaporozhye Region. In both areas, the age structure of the population has significantly deformed (a significant increase in the proportion of elderly and old people), the shortage of specialists in the main areas of socio-economic activity has sharply worsened. It is recorded that in 2022–2023 the only major sphere of economic life that continued to function on a scale comparable to peacetime was agricultural production and related segments of industry (primarily food).

Discussion and Conclusion. Demographic and socio-economic prospects for the development of both regions will largely be determined by the further dynamics of the armed conflict. The prolongation of its active stage will accelerate the process of reducing the local population due to outflow, and in the economic sphere will contribute to the deepening of agricultural (and more broadly – Agro-industrial) specialization of regional economic complexes. A stable truce will allow to diversify the directions of economic growth, first of all, to activate a number of industrial clusters, the tourist and recreational complex, the sphere of transport and logistics. The results of the study can be used in the development and detailing of plans for the socio-economic development of new territories.

Keywords: Northern Black – Azov Sea region, economic potential, population, migration, agro-industrial complex, recreation sector, construction sector

Conflict of interest. The author declares no conflict of interest.

Funding. The publication was prepared as part of the implementation of the State Assignment of the Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, No. of registration of the project 122020100349-6.

For citation: Suschiy S.Ya. Northern Black – Azov Sea Region: Demographic and Economic Potential and Prospects of Economic Development of New Regions of Russia. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2024;32(2):345–367. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.127.032.202402.345-367

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About the author:

Sergey Ya. Suschiy, Dr.Sci. (Philos.), Chief Researcher, Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (41 Chekhov Ave., Rostov-on-Don 344006, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5131-3988, Scopus ID: 56584550300, SS7707@mail.ru

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The author has read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 28.10.2023; revised 29.02.2024; accepted 12.03.2024.