S. E. Demidova, Yu. G. Tyurina, O. B. Buzdalina. Assessing the Impact of the Tourism Industry on Regional Economic Growth During Periods of Systemic Restrictions and Recovery

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202504.659-677
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/laveys
УДК / UDC 338.48:33

Abstract

Introduction. In the context of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and increased geopolitical tensions, traditional drivers of economic growth often lose their effectiveness. In this context, the tourism industry, demonstrating high adaptability due to the growth of domestic and independently organized tourism, is becoming a potential stabilizing factor and a source of regional development. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess the impact of tourism development on the economic growth of Russian regions during the period of significant restrictions (2019–2022) in order to form strategic decisions in the field of sectoral policy

Materials and Methods. The empirical basis of the study was Rosstat's annual panel data on 84 regions of the Russian Federation over a four-year period covering both the pre-crisis stage and the phases of active restriction and recovery. To test hypotheses and quantify relationships, a set of econometric analysis methods was applied, including the evaluation of pooled regression models with fixed and random effects. The Hausman test was used to verify the results. Additionally, in order to identify stable typological patterns, clusterization of regions was carried out using the k-means method for the dynamics of key indicators of tourist activity and economic development. 4 types of regions were identified: Republic of Altai with extreme indicators; 12 “tourist donors”; 27 regions with “growth points”; 33 “attention zones”.

Results. Econometric modeling revealed a statistically significant positive impact of tourist activity on the gross regional product. The analysis showed that the variation in tourism development explains about 34 % of the variation in regional economic growth. According to the tests, the best specification (a model with random effects) confirmed the importance of not only a generalized indicator of tourist activity, but also the scale of the tourism industry, measured as gross value added.

Discussion and Conclusion. Tourism demonstrates resilience to crisis shocks, but its contribution to economic growth is heterogeneous across regions. The effectiveness of traditional fiscal support tools has been limited. The results substantiate the need for a differentiated regional policy, shifting the focus from tax benefits to infrastructural development, taking into account the specifics of the selected clusters. The prospect of further research is to expand the time series and include additional factors in the analysis, such as the specifics of the tourist flow and digitalization of tourist services, and the environmental sustainability of destinations.

Keywords: economic growth, tourism, special economic zones of tourist-recreational type, tourist activity, tourism scale

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

For citation: Demidova S.E., Tyurina Yu.G., Buzdalina O.B. Assessing the Impact of the Tourism Industry on Regional Economic Growth During Periods of Systemic Restrictions and Recovery. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2025;33(4):659–677. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202504.659-677

REFERENCES

1. Felbermayr G., Kirilakha A., Syropoulos C., Yalcin E., Yotov Y.V. The Global Sanctions Data Base. European Economic Review. 2020;(129):103561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103561

2. Gössling S., Scott D., Hall C.M. Pandemics, Tourism and Global Change: A Rapid Assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 2020;29(1):1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708

3. Khan R.E.A., Ahmad T.I., Haleem J. The Governance and Tourism: The Governance and Tourism: A Case of Developing Countries. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling. 2021;9(3):199–213. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2021.93.199.213

4. Hall C.M., Scott D., Gössling S. Pandemics, Transformations and Tourism: Be Careful What You Wish for. Tourism Geographies. 2020;22(3):577–598. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1759131

5. Sigala M. Tourism and COVID-19: Impacts and Implications for Advancing and Resetting Industry and Research. Journal of Business Research. 2020;(117):312–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.015

6. Brouder P. Reset Redux: Possible Evolutionary Pathways Towards the Transformation of Tourism in a COVID-19 World. Tourism Geographies. 2020;22(3):484–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1760928

7. Kabanova E.E. Impact of Economic Sanctions on the Development of Russian Tourism. Russian Economic Developments. 2023;30(2):51–59. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4380577 (accessed 20.05.2024).

8. Abdel V.E.A.M. Tourism Development in Russia in the International Sanctions and their Representation in the Media. Services in Russia and Abroad. 2021;15(2):57–65. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://elibrary.ru/IQPMRI

9. Khanina A.V. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sanctions: Features of the Impact on the Tourism Industry. Service in Russia and Abroad. 2021;15(3):199–208. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://elibrary.ru/LABDWA

10. Zimovets A.V., Sorokina Y.V., Khanina A.V. A Set of Proposals To Protect the Russian Economy From Western Sanctions at the Macro-, Meso- and Micro-Levels. Journal of International Economic Affairs. 2022;12(2):195–214. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.18334/eo.12.2.114792

11. Lukashenok T.R., Okhrimenko E.I. Tourism in the Region: Determinants and Development Trends at the Present Stage. Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Law. 2022;12(11):3023–3036
(In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.18334/epp.12.11.116647

12. Simonyan G.A., Saryan A.A. Strategic Goals and Objectives of the Development of Domestic Tourism in New Conditions. Modern Scientific Thought. 2022;(6):266–273. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.24412/2308-264X-2022-6-266-273

13. Baturina N.A., Pashkevich L.A., Vlasova M.V. Modern Aspects of Domestic Tourism. Economic Environment. 2023;(4):92–100. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.36683/2306-1758/2023-4-46/92-100

14. Ohlan R. The Relationship between Tourism, Financial Development and Economic Growth in India. Future Business Journal. 2017;3(1):9–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.01.003

15. Bassil C., Hamadeh M., Samara N. The Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: The Lebanese Case. Tourism Review. 2015;70(1):43–55. https://doi.org/10.1108/TR-05-2014-0022

16. Habibi F., Rahmati M., Karimi A. Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Iran's Provinces: GDM Approach. Future Business Journal. 2018;4(2):261–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2018.09.001

17. Tang C.-F., Cheah Y.-K., Chua S.Y. Does Educational Tourism Significantly Influence Economic Growth? Evidence from a Macro-Econometric Modelling. International Journal of Business and Society. 2019;20(3):924–935. Available at: https://www.ijbs.unimas.my/images/repository/pdf/Vol20-no3-paper4.pdf (accessed 20.05.2024).

18. Corbet S., O’Connell J., Efthymiou M., Guiomard C., Lucey B. The Impact of Terrorism on European Tourism. Annals of Tourism Research. 2019;(75):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2018.12.012

19. Liu N., Xu Q., Gao M. Digital Transformation and Tourism Listed Firm Performance in COVID-19 Shock. Finance Research Letters. 2024;(63):105398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105398

20. Bronzini R., Ciani E., Montaruli F. Tourism and Local Growth in Italy. Regional Studies. 2021;56(1):140–154. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1910649

21. Morozov M.A., Morozova N.S. Regional Features of Development of Tourism Infrastructure and Their Impact on Tourism. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2021;29(3):588–610. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.116.029.202103.588-610

22. Burnyasheva L.A., Romanov E.N. The Impact of the Tourism Industry on the Socioeconomic Development of Russian Regions. Social and Humanitarian Knowledge. 2023;(3):43–45. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://www.elibrary.ru/APMEMT

23. Gureva E.V. Regional Tourism in the Russian Federation: Influence of Institutional Factors on the Development (Case Study of the Volgograd Region). Science. Society. State. 2023;11(2):75–85. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.21685/2307-9525-2023-11-2-8

24. Yermolovskaya O.Y., Egorova E.N., Chernikova L.I. Investment Potential of Tourism Development in Russian Regions. Voprosy regionalnoi ekonomiki. 2020;(1):45–52. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://www.elibrary.ru/OZLLSV

25. Ovchinnikova N.V., Ovchinnikov S.A., Lebedeva O.E., Maslennikova E.G., Istomina M.M. Improving the Management System of a Tourism Enterprise in a Crisis. Ekonomika i predprinimatelstvo. 2021;(1):754–757. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.34925/EIP.2021.126.01.146

26. Trstenjak A., Žiković T.I., Žiković S. Making Tourism More Sustainable: Empirical Evidence from EU Member Countries. Environment, Development and Sustainbility. 2025;(27):9325–9355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-04284-9

27. Colacchio G., Vergori A.S. GDP Growth Rate, Tourism Expansion and Labor Market Dynamics: Applied Research Focused on the Italian Economy. National Accounting Review. 2022;(4):310–328. Available at: https://iris.unisalento.it/handle/11587/477168 (accessed 20.05.2024).

28. Tecel A., Katircioğlu S., Taheri E., Bekun F.V. Causal Interactions Among Tourism, Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Credits, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected Mediterranean Countries. Portuguese Economic Journal. 2020;(19):195–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00181-5

29. Colacchio G., Vergori A.S. Tourism Development and Italian Economic Growth: The Weight of the Regional Economies. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2023;16(4):16040245. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16040245

30. Khan A., Bibi S., Ardito L., Lyu J., Hayat H., Arif A.M. Revisiting the Dynamics of Tourism, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollutants in the Emerging Economies-Sustainable Tourism Policy Implications. Sustainability. 2020;(12):2533. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062533

31. Alcalá-Ordóñez A., Brida J.G., Cárdenas-García P.J., Segarra V. Tourism and Economic Development: A Panel Data Analysis for Island Countries. European Journal of Tourism Research. 2024;(36):3615. https://doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v36i.3308

About the authors:

Svetlana E. Demidova, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Chair of Public Finance of the Faculty of Finance of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49/2 Leningradskii Prospekt, Moscow 125167, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2169-4190, Researcher ID: AAU-4802-2020, SPIN-code: 4793-3688, demidovapsk@gmail.com

Yuliya G. Tyurina, Dr.Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor of the Chair of Public Finance of the Faculty of Finance of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49/2 Leningradskii Prospekt, Moscow 125167, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5279-4901, Researcher ID: Q-9676-2018, SPIN-code: 1310-6067, u_turina@mail.ru

Olga B. Buzdalina, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor of the Chair of Public Finance of the Faculty of Finance of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49/2 Leningradskii Prospekt, Moscow 125167, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3129-9426, SPIN-code: 3228-9568, obbuzdalina@fa.ru

Contribution of the authors:

S. E. Demidova – conceptualization; formal analysis; validation; writing – original draft preparation; visualization.

Yu. G. Tyurina – methodology; formal analysis; supervision; writing – review and editing.

O. B. Buzdalina – investigation; project administration; validation; writing – review and editing.

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the authors on reasonable request.

The authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 27.01.2025; revised 11.06.2025; accepted 20.06.2025.