P. Lv. Main Directions of Arctic Policies in Reports by US Think Tank

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202504.615-633
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/bnispi
УДК / UDC 33(211–17)(73)

Abstract

Introduction. Against the backdrop of escalating conflict in Ukraine and deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic, US policy is demonstrating new trends. The aim of this study is to identify the main stages in the evolution of US Arctic policy, as well as its key thematic areas.

Materials and Methods. This study applies the BERTopic and DTM models for topic modeling and dynamic analysis of 918 official policy documents (such as strategies, doctrines, directives, and reports) and research reports published by government agencies and think tanks from 2005 to January 2025.

Results. The main topics of reports on US Arctic policy focus on four areas: geopolitics and security, environmental and climate change, economic and technological development, and scientific research and data monitoring. Dynamic thematic modeling further revealed the evolution of Arctic policy and reports by US think tanks, which went through stages of transition from environmental protection to energy resource development and then to geopolitical competition.

Discussion and Conclusion. Against the backdrop of deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic and the escalating conflict in Ukraine, the US is consistently strengthening security in cooperation with its allies and increasing its military presence in the region. Looking ahead, US Arctic policy will focus on competition between leading powers, energy security, and technological innovation, driven by the need to respond to growing challenges in international security and global governance. Understanding these trends is of key practical importance for experts and policymakers in Russia and other interested countries, as it enables them to formulate more accurate forecasts and develop effective responses to changes in US Arctic strategy.

Keywords: USA, Arctic, policies and reports, BERTopic, DTM

Conflict of interest. The author declares no conflict of interest.

Funding. The study was supported by the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX25_0411).

For citation: Lv P. Main Directions of Arctic Policies in Reports by USA Think Tank. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2025;33(4):615–633. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.033.202504.615-633

REFERENCES

1. Sun J., Li Z., Deng Z. A Study on the Spatial Pattern of Economic Connection Networks in the Arctic Route Economic Circle. Journal of Central China Normal University (Natural Sciences Edition). 2022;56(03):421–427. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.19603/j.cnki.1000-1190.2022.03.007

2. Khazieva R.R., Karpova E.I. Differences in U.S. Arctic Policy According to National Security Strategies. Arctic XXI Century. 2023;(2):58–69. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.25587/SVFU.2023.84.24.005

3. Cao L. Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and Russia in the Arctic: Policy Conflicts, Main Drivers, and Development Trends. Journal of Ocean University of China (Social Sciences Edition). 2023;(03):13–24. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.16497/j.cnki.1672-335X.202303002

4. Zhu X., Pasch T.J., Ahajjam M.A., Bergstrom A. Environmental Monitoring for Arctic Resiliency and Sustainability: An Integrated Approach with Topic Modeling and Network Analysis. Sustainability. 2022;14(24):16493. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416493

5. Ancin-Murguzur F.J., Hausner V.H. Research Gaps and Trends in the Arctic Tundra: A Topic-Modelling Approach. One Ecosystem. 2020;(5):e57117. https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.5.e57117

6. Li M., Yuan W., Yuan Wu, Niu F., Li H., Hu D. Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Geopolitical Relations Among Arctic Countries Based on News Big Data. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 2022;32(10):2036–2052. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-022-2035-0

7. Gritsenko D. Vodka on Ice? Unveiling Russian Media Perceptions of the Arctic. Energy Research and Social Science. 2016;(16):8–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.03.012

8. Egger R., Yu J. A Topic Modeling Comparison Between LDA, NMF, Top2Vec, and BERTopic to Demystify Twitter Posts. Frontiers in Sociology. 2022;(7):886498. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2022.886498

9. Wang Z., Zhou R., Wang Y. DTM-Based Analysis of Hot Topics and Evolution of China’s Energy Policy. Sustainability. 2024;16(19):8293. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16198293

10. Zhang J., Guo P. New Trends and Impacts of Arctic Geopolitical Competition Since the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies. 2024;(6):91–113. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.20018/j.cnki.reecas.2024.06.004

11. Kelman I., Sydnes A.K., Duda P.I., Nikitina E., Webersik C. Norway-Russia Disaster Diplomacy for Svalbard. Safety Science. 2020;(130):104896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104896

12. Kobzeva M. Strategic Partnership Setting for Sino-Russian Cooperation in Arctic Shipping. The Polar Journal. 2020;10(2):334–352. https://doi.org/10.1080/2154896X.2020.1810956

13. MacDonald A.P. China-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic: A Cause for Concern for the Western Arctic States? Canadian Foreign Policy Journal. 2021;27(2):194–210. https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2021.1936098

About the author:

Peiying Lv, PhD Candidate, School of Foreign Studies, Southeast University (Jiangning District, Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China), ORCID: http://orcid.org/0009-0006-1138-8604, lvpy219@163.com

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The author has read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 14.03.2025; revised 14.07.2025; accepted 25.07.2025.