O. S. Zviagintseva. Diagnostics of the Potential оf Agrarian-Territorial Systems аs а Tool for Managing their Development (Using the Example of Regions of the North Caucasus Federal District)

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.26342.328-353
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/oajkjn ISSN 2413-1407
УДК / UDC 332.1:63 ISSN 2587-8549

Abstract

Introduction. An important area of Russia's strategic development is ensuring the sustainable, interconnected development of the agro-industrial complex and rural areas. Their effective interaction requires a thorough analysis of regional potential – natural, social, economic, and agricultural. Existing assessment methods, based on integrated indices and expert scores, fail to distinguish between resource utilization and the creation of opportunities for future development, thereby undermining the validity of strategic decisions. The objective of this study is to develop and test a methodology for assessing the potential of the agrarian-territorial system, differentiated along two interrelated dimensions: functioning and development, dividing potential into current and future.

Materials and Methods. The study was conducted within the framework of a systems paradigm. The potential of the agrarian-territorial system is structured across four subsystems (economic, agricultural, social, and natural) and three types (available, transformational, and active). The diagnostic toolkit was based on a multivariate factor analysis of 12 standardized indicators for 2016–2022. Five common factors were identified, explaining over 72 % of the variance. These factors were interpreted as components of current (available resources and rural household well-being) and future potential (investment activity and reproductive capacity). These factors were used to construct diagnostic maps and retrospective phase trajectories for seven regions of the North Caucasus Federal District.

Results. The diagnostic maps characterize the agrarian-territorial systems potential in terms of its position relative to the Russian average median and the federal district median. For the first time, an imbalance between current and future potential has been quantitatively documented: a number of regions, while demonstrating rising rural well-being and production volumes, are simultaneously losing ground in terms of future potential due to a declining youth population share and declining investment activity. The correlation between the transformation dynamics of these two components allowed us to identify four types of regional trajectories – from accelerated resource expenditure to targeted accumulation of development potential.

Conclusion. The proposed methodology for assessing the current and future potential of agrarian-territorial systems serves as a key factor in the targeted, interconnected development of rural areas and the agro-industrial complex. Its scientific novelty lies in its objective separation of operational
and development processes based on factor analysis, without subjective weighting of indicators. The methodology can serve as a tool for providing information and analytical support for the development, adoption, and implementation of management decisions in regional agricultural policy, and its open architecture of indicators allows for its adaptation to the municipal level and spatial planning objectives.

Keywords: agrarian-territorial system, rural areas, agro-industrial complex, potential diagnostics, syste­matic approach, factor analysis

Conflict of interest. The author declares no conflict of interest.

Funding. The research was carried out within the framework of the strategic academic leadership program “Priority 2030” and the joint project “Quality of Life in Rural Areas: Evolution, Assessment, Prospects” of Stavropol State Agrarian University and the Higher School of Economics (part of the program “Mirror Laboratories”).

For citation: Zviagintseva O.S. Diagnostics of the Potential оf Agrarian-Territorial Systems аs а Tool for Managing their Development (Using the Example of Regions of the North Caucasus
Federal District). Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2026;34(2):328–353. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.26342.328-353

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About the author:

Olga S. Zviagintseva, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Head of the Chair of Management and Sustainable Development of Territories, Stavropol State Agrarian University (12 Zootechnical Lane, Stavropol 355000, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3872-0161, Researcher ID: N-7457-2016, Scopus ID: 57188928723, SPIN-code: 4180-2356,
o-zvyagintseva@yandex.ru

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The author has read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 07.08.2025; revised 22.08.2025; accepted 04.09.2025.