О. М. Shubat. Economic Determinants of High Order Births in Russia: The Study Based on the Analysis of Regional Differentiation

UDК 314.143

doi: 10.15507/2413-1407.123.031.202302.357-374

Abstract

Introduction. Demographic problems are one of the acutest in modern Russia. Negative demographic trends which are specifically manifested in the regions of the country, actualize the study of trends, causes and consequences of the decline in fertility. This will allow developing more effective measures of state support and stimulation of the birth rate. At the same time, the study of regional differentiation is especially in demand in relation to higher-order births. An increase in the number of births of third and subsequent children is necessary to overcome negative demographic trends and increase the population in the country. The purpose of the article is to study the features of regional differentiation of high order births in Russia and to assess the influence of economic factors on them.

Materials and Methods. The demographic indicators of Rosstat for 2018–2021, presented in the regional context, were used as an information base; ratings of regions of the agency RIA Rating. The methods of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and comparison tests were used. Based on the Tukey criterion the regions with atypical values of the birth rate were identified and described separately.

Results. The analysis has revealed a high level of regional differentiation of higher-order births; showed no relationship between the birth rate of third and subsequent children and the following economic factors in the regions: the implementation of regional maternity capital programs, the level of socio-economic development of the region and the level of well-being of families in the region. The analysis has showed that these factors are not related to the nature of the dynamics of the birth rate of third and subsequent children in the regions of Russia.

Discussions and Conclusions. The results obtained have allowed us to conclude that the determinants of high-order births in Russia are not limited to the economic conditions of the population’s life. The effectiveness of the economic measures implemented in the country to support and stimulate high-order births has not been confirmed. The results can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of pronatalist state measures. Understanding the features and causes of the emerging regional differentiation of high-order births will make it possible to build more reasonable forecasts of demographic dynamics.

Keywords: birth rate, higher-order births, regional maternity capital, Russian regions, level of socio-economic development, level of well-being of families, regional differentiation

Conflict of interests. The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.

Funding. The study was conducted as part of the project “Russian Pro-Natalist Policy Support Institutions: Potential and Prospects for Influencing Birth Rate Growth” supported by the Council for Grants of the President of the Russian Federation for State Support to Leading Scientific Schools of the Russian Federation (SS-1327.2022).

For citation: Shubat О.М. Economic Determinants of High Order Births in Russia: The Study Based on the Analysis of Regional Differentiation. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2023;31(2):357–374. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.123.031.202302.357-374

REFERENCES

1. Wood J., Neels K., Vergauwen J. Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries. Population Research and Policy Review. 2016;35(3):305–325. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-016-9389-x

2. Matysiak A., Szalma I. Effets des politiques de congé parental sur les deuxièmes naissances et l’emploi des femmes en Hongrie et en Pologne. Population. 2014;69:659–698. https://doi.org/10.3917/popu.1404.0659

3. Stanczyk A. B. The Dynamics of U.S. Household Economic Circumstances Around a Birth. Demography. 2020;57(4):1271–1296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00897-1

4. Cowan S.K., Douds K.W. Examining the Effects of a Universal Cash Transfer on Fertility. Social Forces. 2022;101(2):1003–1030. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soac013

5. Pomar L., Favre G., de Labrusse C., Contier A., Boulvain M., Baud D. Impact of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Birth Rates in Europe: A Time Series Analysis in 24 Countries. Human Reproduction. 2022;37(12):2921–2931. https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deac215

6. Kristensen A. P., Lappegård, T. Unemployment and Fertility: The Relationship between Individual and Aggregated Unemployment and Fertility During 1994–2014 in Norway. Demographic Research. 2022;46:1037–1064. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.35

7. Behrman J., Gonalons-Pons P. Women’s Employment and Fertility in a Global Perspective (1960–2015). Demographic Research. 2020;43:707–744. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.43.25

8. Marynissen L., Neels K., Wood J., Van de Velde S. Ready for Parenthood? Dual Earners’ Relative Labour Market Positions and Entry into Parenthood in Belgium. Demographic Research. 2020;42:901–932. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.42.33

9. Ermisch J. English Fertility Heads South: Understanding the Recent Decline. Demographic Research. 2021;45:903–916. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2021.45.29

10. da Silva J.H.C.M., de Lima E.E.C., de Oliveira M.C.F.A. Educational Pairings and Fertility Decline in Brazil: An Analysis Using Cohort Fertility. Demographic Research. 2022;46:147–178. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.6

11. Arkhangel’skiy V.N. Assistance to Families with Children in Russia: An Assessment of Demographic Efficiency. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. 2015;(3):56–64. Available at: https://www.socis.isras.ru/files/File/2015/2015_3/Archangelskiy.pdf (accessed 21.08.2022). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

12. Sorvachev I., Yakovlev E. Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia. IZA Discussion Papers. 2020;13019. Available at: https://docs.iza.org/dp13019.pdf (accessed 25.08.2022).

13. Koroleva L.P. Social Policy of the Regions: Reducing Poverty among Families with Children and Stimulating Fertility. Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2020;18(10):1869–1893. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.24891/re.18.10.1869

14. Mazurenko S.V. Types of Maternal Capital and Features of its Use. Bulletin of the Kerch State Marine Technological University. 2020;(1):176–202. Available at: https://clck.ru/34SpVq (accessed 02.10.2022). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

15. Kazenin К.I. Birth Rate in Russia in 2020: Regional Dynamics. Russian Economic Developments. 2021;28(3):50–54. Available at: http://www.edrussia.ru/archive/2021/1361-03-2021 (accessed 17.09.2022). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

16. Kostina S.N., Trynov A.V. Cluster Analysis of the Dynamics of the Birth Rate of Fourth and Subsequent Children in Russian Regions. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2021;14(3):232–245. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2021.3.75.14

17. Shubat O.M. Statistical Estimates of the Decline of the Russian Fertility: Regional Specifcs. Voprosy statistiki. 2021;28(5):39–48. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-5-39-48

18. Rodionova L.A., Kopnova E.D. Birth Seasonality in Russia: Regional Features. Voprosy statistiki. 2022;29(2):61–76. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-2-61-76

19. Trynov A.V., Kostina S.N., Bannykh G.A. Examination of Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility based on the Regional Panel Data Analysis. Economy of Region. 2020;16(3):807–819. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-3-10

20. Rogacheva O.A. Birth Rate in the Irkutsk Region and in Russia: Index Analysis. Baikal Research Journal. 2021;12(1). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.17150/2411-6262.2021.12(1).20

21. Rotar Т.S. Multi-Dimensional Statistical Analysis of Fertility in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Vektor ekonomiki. 2020;(11). Available at: http://www.vectoreconomy.ru/images/publications/2020/11/mathematicalmethods/Rotar.pdf (accessed 25.09.2022). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

22. Tikhomirova T.M., Tikhomirov N.P. Evaluation of the Impact of Maternity Capital in Russian Regions. Federalism. 2020;(1):5–26. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2020-1-5-26

23. Popova L.A. Modern Russian Demographic Policy in the Field of Fertility: Results and Areas for Improvement. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2016;(2):79–93. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2016.2.44.5

24. Zakharov S. Modest Demographic Results of the Pronatalist Family policy in the Context of Long-Term Evolution of Fertility in Russia. Part 2. Demographic Review. 2016;3(4):6–26. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v3i4.3203

25. Grishina Ye., Cacura Yе. Regional Maternal Capital: Analysis of Regional Differences and Influence on Fertility Behavior. Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia. 2017;3(205):51–58. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.12737/article_595cd361ebda81.61231626

26. Cummings D.R. Human Birth Seasonality and Sunshine. American Journal of Human Biology. 2010;22(3):316–324. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajhb.20987

Submitted 23.11.2022; revised 28.02.2023; accepted 10.03.2023.

About the author:

Oksana M. Shubat, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor, Department of Economics and Management at Metallurgy and Industrial Enterprises, Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin (19 Mira St., Ekaterinburg 620002, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0929-8144, o.m.shubat@urfu.ru

The author has read and approved the final version of the manuscript.