A. A. Sokolov, O. S. Rudneva. Assessment of the Stability of Russia's Borders Based on Ethnic, Historical, and Natural Factors

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.26343.611-633
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/trcbqgISSN 2413-1407
УДК / UDC 39(470+571) ISSN 2587-8549

Abstract

Introduction. Border sustainability is the main factor of national security and regional development. The dissolution of the USSR and the formation of new state borders of the Russian Federation have brought to the fore the problem of assessing the sustainability of these borders. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment, with segmentation of Russia's land border by degree of sustainability, based on an analysis of historical, natural, and ethnic determinants.

Materials and Methods. The methodology is based on the classical morphological approach, adapted for a comprehensive assessment of Russia's land border. The empirical basis consisted of historical and cartographic materials, data from physical-geographical regionalization, and statistics from national censuses of Russia and neighboring states. Border sustainability is determined through a cumulative assessment of three basic substrates: historical maturity (duration of existence along unchanged borders), natural barrier potential (alignment with pronounced physical-geographical objects), and ethno-cultural contrast (distribution of titular ethnic groups in the border areas).

Results. Based on the developed binary matrix of criteria, a typological segmentation of the border was carried out, identifying four levels of sustainability. The most sustainable borders are those with the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Norway, which align with all three criteria. Borders with medium sustainability (with Mongolia, Finland, and Lithuania) are characterized by a paired combination of determinants. The least sustainable segments (in the Caucasus, with Ukraine and Belarus) meet only one of the criteria. Unsustainable borders are primarily the geometric borders with Kazakhstan, formed in the 20th century without regard to natural and ethnic boundaries.

Conclusion. The results demonstrate a high degree of spatial differentiation in the sustainability of Russia's borders. Differentiated approaches to security and management are proposed for each type of segment – from infrastructure development on sustainable segments to enhanced control and monitoring on unsustainable ones. The findings can be used for the development of a segmented state border policy.

Keywords: state border, border typology, border stability, border regions, historical development, natural barriers, ethnic areas

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Funding. The study was carried out on the topic of the state assignment of the Steppe Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences of the Orenburg Federal Research Center
of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences No. GR 126013016160-7 “Geoecological Foundations and Technological Aspects of Optimizing Nature Management in the Steppe Regions of Russia and Adjacent Territories”.

For citation: Sokolov A.A., Rudneva O.S. Assessment of the Stability of Russia's Borders Based on Ethnic, Historical, and Natural Factors. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2026;34(3):611–633. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.26343.611-633

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About the authors:

Aleksandr A. Sokolov, Cand.Sci. (Geograph.), Senior Researcher, Department of Socio-Economic Geography, Steppe Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (11 Pionerskaya St., Orenburg 460000, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0093-3420, Researcher ID: Q-8019-2016, Scopus ID: 57217695444, SPIN-code: 1223-3480, SokolovAA@rambler.ru

Oxana S. Rudneva, Cand.Sci. (Geograph.), Senior Researcher, Department of Socio-Economic Geography, Steppe Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (11 Pionerskaya St., Orenburg 460000, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-3301, Researcher ID: Q-7434-2016, Scopus ID: 55949910700, SPIN-code: 9870-1328, Ksen1909@mail.ru

Contribution of the authors:

A. A. Sokolov – conceptualization; methodology; supervision; project administration; investigation; validation; critical review.

O. S. Rudneva – data curation; formal analysis; investigation; resources; visualization; validation; writing – original draft preparation.

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the authors on reasonable request.

The authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 19.03.2025; revised  05.12.2025; accepted 22.12.2025.