P. O. Trunov. Germany’s Policy in the Middle East Regarding Peace and Security: Achievements and Miscalculations

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.26343.634-657
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/uemejr ISSN 2413-1407
УДК / UDC 32:355.01(5-15)(430) ISSN 2587-8549

Abstract

Introduction. In the early 2020s, the strategic presence of the Federal Republic of Germany in the Global South entered a phase of systemic crisis. In an attempt to reverse this trend, official Berlin intensified the use of political and military instruments in the Middle East, framing their deployment as a contribution to regional peace and stability. This article aims to assess the content and effectiveness of Germany's political and military measures, as well as their actual impact on conflict resolution and the regional balance of power.

Materials and Methods. The empirical basis of the study draws on documents from the Office of the Federal Chancellor, the Bundestag, the Federal Foreign Office, and the Federal Ministry of Defence for the period 2006–2026. The research combines comparative analysis, event analysis, and discourse analysis, allowing for a systematic examination of the evolution of German foreign policy rhetoric, the dynamics of high-level official visits, and the patterns of Bundeswehr military presence in the region.

Results. Within the framework of the course toward “strategic restraint”, Germany formed a positive foreign policy image: in 2003, it refused to support the invasion of Iraq; subsequent efforts to strengthen its positions (including participation in security sector reform and the fight against ISIS2) demonstrated limited effectiveness. On the Palestinian issue and the Lebanese settlement, Berlin declared its commitment to the “two states for two peoples” formula and to the territorial integrity of Lebanon. However, the unconditional priorities remained consideration of Israel's interests and the special nature of relations with it. After October 7, 2023, the FRG expressed political solidarity with Israel in its confrontation with Hamas and the Iran-backed “axis of resistance”. In 2025–2026, Berlin shifted to an open course of containing Iran. At the same time, Germany consistently avoided direct military involvement and took into account the positions of the Gulf monarchies.

Conclusion. Germany's demonstrated caution in the use of force served not so much as a manifestation of balance as a cover for its limited influence and piecemeal military presence in the region. The low effectiveness of the FRG's participation in conflict resolution is explained by a shift in goals. Berlin's main task is not conflict resolution, but the containment of actors rejecting the Western-centric model of world order. The article is addressed to specialists in the field of international security and researchers of relations between the Global North and the Global South.

Keywords: Germany, Middle East, Israel, Iraq, Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Jordan, Lebanon, “axis of resistance”, Iran, deterrence, Bundeswehr

Conflict of interest. The author declares no conflict of interest.

For citation: Trunov P.O. Germany’s Policy in the Middle East Regarding Peace and Security: Achievements and Miscalculations. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2026;34(3):634–657. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.26343.634-657

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About the author:

Philipp O. Trunov, Dr.Sci. (Polit.), Leading Researcher, Department of European and American Studies, Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (51/21 Nakhimovskiy prospect, Moscow 117418, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7092-4864, Researcher ID: AAC-7844-2020, Scopus ID: 57211605240, SPIN-code: 4235-8120, 1trunov@mail.ru

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

The author has read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 04.06.2025; revised 29.06.2026; accepted 09.07.2026.