A. E. Kurilo. Long-Term Trends in Regional Labor Markets in Russia

UDК 331.52(470+571

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.115.029.202102.427-446

Introduction. Unemployment is one of the fundamental issues of macroeconomics and has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of regions and the country as a whole. Based on the results of the conducted study, the article identifies the correlation between unemployment and volumes of output in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Materials and Methods. The paper used open statistical data for 79 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The methods of comparative, economic, and statistical analysis were used to identify the trends in the development of regional labor markets. The trends of the labor market, including the correlation between the gross regional product and the unemployment rate, were studied based on the economic and statistical models and the statistical data for Russian regions for 1997–2017.

Results. The study has revealed the increasing discrepancy between the aggregates of the labor market – the registered unemployment rate and the unemployment rate according to the conducted sample surveys of the population. The inertia of the indicator of “the registered unemployment rate”, associated with the institutional constraints of the labor market, has been shown. The slow response of the gross regional product to the change in the aggregates of unemployment has been revealed. No clear correlation has been observed between volumes of output and changes in the unemployment rate according to the methodology of the International Labour Organization based on the data from the sample labor force surveys.

Discussion and Conclusion. The increasing divergence of aggregates of unemployment reveals a distortion of the formal institutional environment of the labor market and is due to the financial constraints of public authorities. Further research will focus on the assessment of the impact of the sectoral structure of the economy on the closeness of the correlation between changes in the gross regional product and the aggregates of the labor market. Understanding the trends in the development of the labor market is necessary for conducting a balanced policy of managing its transformation and the socio-economic development of the regions and the country as a whole.

Keywords: unemployment rate, gross regional product, Okun’s law, regression model, economic growth

The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.

Funding. The article was done as part of the implementation of the government assignment to the Institute of Economic of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the research topic “Revealing the synergetic patterns of regional socio-ecological-economic systems and modeling of dynamic processes of sustainable development in multicomponent systems of different natureˮ.

Acknowledgements. The author expresses gratitude to the reviewers whose comments helped to improve the quality of the article.

For citation: Kurilo A.E. Long-Term Trends in Regional Labor Markets in Russia. Regionology = Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2021; 29(2):427-446. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.115.029.202102.427-446

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Submitted 19.11.2021; approved after reviewing 22.03.2021; accepted for publication 30.03.2021.

About the author:

Anna E. Kurilo, Leading Researcher, Department of Modeling and Forecasting Regional Development, Institute of Economics, Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (50 A. Nevskogo Ave., Petrozavodsk 185030, Russian Federation), Dr. Sci. (Economics), Associate Professor, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7222-7832, akurilo@mail.ru

The author has read and approved the final version of the manuscript.
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