M. V. Pyataev, S. A. Bykadorov, Yu. К. Serkova. The Megaproject of the Central Eurasian Transport Corridor: Analysis of Effectiveness Using the Input–Output Method

https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.134.034.202601.100-120
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/gaxnjfISSN 2413-1407
УДК / UDC 33 (1-924/-925) ISSN 2587-8549

Abstract

Introduction. Assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of major infrastructure projects requires methods that take into account multiplier effects in the economy. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of three alternative implementation options for the Central Eurasian Transport Corridor megaproject and identify the most effective configuration.

Materials and Methods. The study focused on three combinations of railway projects. A static input-output model (Leontief model) was implemented using the official input-output tables of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) for 2016. Investments were distributed across industries according to the technological structure of transport construction. Efficiency was assessed for the investment and operational phases under two freight flow scenarios (15 and 45 million tonnes).

Results. Significant macroeconomic impacts were identified for all options under consideration. Megaproject III (Sabetta-Kuragino-Kyzyl-Urumqi) demonstrated the highest multiplier effect on gross domestic product after 10 years of operation (up to 3.69). The highest increase in gross output and gross domestic product during the investment phase was demonstrated by the most capital-intensive Megaproject II (Sabetta-Tashtagol-Altai). A detailed breakdown of the resulting gross added value is presented.

Discussion and Conclusion. Large-scale railway projects have a significant long-term multiplier effect on the economy, providing increases in output, gross domestic product, and budget revenues. The study's results allow for ranking options based on macroeconomic efficiency and substantiate the need to consider intersectoral linkages when assessing the social significance of infrastructure megaprojects.

Keywords: megaproject, Central Eurasian Transport Corridor, input–output method, input–output balance, Leontief model, macroeconomic efficiency, multiplier effect, railway infrastructure, North-Siberian Railway, Northern Latitudinal Passage

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Funding. The study was supported by grant No. 25-28-00452 from the Russian Science Foundation (https://rscf.ru/project/25-28-00452/).

For citation: Pyataev M.V., Bykadorov S.A., Serkova Yu.К. The Megaproject of the Central Eurasian Transport Corridor: Analysis of Effectiveness Using the Input–Output Method. Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2026;34(1):100–120. https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.134.034.202601.100-120

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About the authors:

Maksim V. Pyataev, Cand.Sci (Econ.), Associate Professor, Head of the Chair of Systems Analysis and Project Management, Siberian Transport University (191 Dusi Kovalchuk St., Novosibirsk 630049, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0844-7574, Researcher ID: B-8139-2013, Scopus ID: 57214103863, SPIN-code: 8480-9705, procedure@inbox.ru

Sergey A. Bykadorov, Dr.Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor of the Chair of Systems Analysis and Project Management, Siberian Transport University (191 Dusi Kovalchuk St., Novosibirsk 630049, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2585-143X, Researcher ID: I-4343-2016, Scopus ID: 57193671235, SPIN-code: : 4011-0450, byser1@yandex.ru

Yulia К. Serkova, Assistant of the Chair of Systems Analysis and Project Management, Siberian Transport University (191 Dusi Kovalchuk St., Novosibirsk 630049, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2535-1234, SPIN-codе: 8806-2319, serkovajulia09@yandex.ru

Contribution of the authors:

M. V. Pyataev – conceptualization; data curation; formal analysis; funding acquisition; investigation; methodology; project administration; supervision; visualization; writing – review and editing.

S. A. Bykadorov – investigation; validation; writing – review and editing.

Yu. К. Serkova – validation; formal analysis.

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the authors on reasonable request.

The authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 17.02.2025; revised 08.07.2025; accepted 16.07.2025.