P. V. Druzhinin, E. V. Molchanova. Mortality Rates in Russian Regions in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

УДК 314.42:616-036.21

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.116.029.202103.666-685

Introduction. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has had a strong impact on the socio-economic situation in the country, especially on demographic processes. The article analyzes the change in the mortality rates in Russian regions and assesses the influence of various factors on them during the pandemic.

Materials and Methods. The paper examined data from the Federal State Statistics Service on mortality rates in Russian regions. Based on the graphs analyzed and regression equations built, the factors that determined the increase in mortality rates during the pandemic and the degree of their influence were identified.

Results. Changes in the rates of morbidity and mortality in Russian regions depended on the development of the healthcare system, demographic, socio-economic, and geographical factors, as well as on the actions of regional and federal authorities. The geographical location of the regions turned out to be the determining factor. The highest mortality rates were found in the regions located in the center of the European part of Russia at the intersection of transport routes. In some months, high mortality rates were observed in the regions bordering China, Kazakhstan, and Finland. The proportion of pensioners and the degree of decline in personal income were also significant.

Discussion and Conclusion. Calculations have shown that at the beginning of both waves of the pandemic, the increase in mortality rates depended on the provision of the population of the regions with doctors and hospital beds. In the spring, the restrictions imposed restrained the spread of the disease, but led to an economic recession and an increase in unemployment. In the autumn, less severe restrictions were introduced, which led to a significant increase in mortality rates and a slight decline in the economy. The research results can be used to optimize the managerial decisions in the field of medical and demographic policy.

Keywords: region, demography, COVID-19 pandemic, mortality, Volga Federal District

Funding. The article was done as part of the implementation of the government assignment to the Institute of Economics of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

For citation: Druzhinin P.V., Molchanova E.V. Mortality Rates in Russian Regions in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Regionology = Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2021; 29(3):666-685. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.116.029.202103.666-685

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Submitted 06.04.2021; approved after reviewing 20.05.2021; accepted for publication 31.05.2021.

About the authors:

Pavel V. Druzhinin, Leading Research Officer, Institute of Economics, Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (50 A. Nevskogo Ave., Petrozavodsk 185030, Russian Federation), Dr. Sci. (Economics), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5303-0455, Researcher ID: http://www.researcherid.com/rid/F-4625-2010, pdruzhinin@mail.ru

Ekaterina V. Molchanova, Leading Research Officer, Institute of Economics, Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (50 A. Nevskogo Ave., Petrozavodsk 185030, Russian Federation), Dr. Sci. (Economics), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4717-5708, Researcher ID: http://www.researcherid.com/rid/AAD-7816-2020, molch@yandex.ru

Contribution of the authors:

P. V. Druzhinin – statement of the research problem; preparation of the text of the article; performing calculations; evaluation of the results; drawing conclusions.

E. V. Molchanova – preparation of the text of the article; drawing conclusions; critical analysis and revision of the text.

The authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.

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