I. A. Sekushina. Assessing the Balance of the Urban Settlement System in the European North of Russia

UDК 314.9(470.1/.2)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.116.029.202103.642-665

Introduction. In modern Economics, one of the most common and simplest methods of analyzing the balance of urban settlement systems is to assess their compliance with Zipf's law or the rank–size rule. The basis of this pattern is the relationship between urban population and its place in the hierarchy of towns ranked in descending order of size. Based on the results of the study conducted, the article assesses the balance of the urban settlement system of the European North Russia, as one of its regions, by analyzing its compliance with Zipf’s law.

Materials and Methods. The official data from the Federal State Statistics Service on the population of towns in the European North of Russia for 1959, 1989 and 2019 were used as materials of the study. The method of constructing a linear regression between the logarithm of the actual population and the logarithm of the rank of the town was used to verify Zipf's law for the urban network of the region in a certain period. In order to substantiate the conclusions drawn, an analysis of the dynamics of the number of towns and the share of the population living in them was carried out. The monographic method, as well as the methods of tabular and graphical data visualization, was used to interpret the results of the calculations.

Results. Based on the analysis of data on the application of the rank–size rule for the towns in the European North of Russia, it has been found that Zipf’s law was not fully observed in any time period, which indicates the imbalance of the existing urban settlement system. In the period from 1959 to 2019, there was an increase in the concentration of the population in the major cities of the region. The imbalance is also caused by the growing number of small towns with a population that does not correspond to the optimal value according to Zipf's law.

Discussion and Conclusion. Based on the calculations, the author has come to the conclusion that the cities of Arkhangelsk and Cherepovets have the potential for growth, as well as some others with a population of up to 100 thousand people. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results obtained to prognosticate the population of towns in the European North of Russia when planning the location of production facilities, as well as transport and social infrastructure in the region.

Keywords: Zipf's law, rank–size rule, town, European North of Russia, settlement system

Funding. The article was done as part of the implementation of the government assignment to the Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the research topic No. 0168-2019-0004 “Improvement of Mechanisms for Development and Effective Use of the Potential of Socio-Economic Systems”.

For citation: Sekushina I.A. Assessing the Balance of the Urban Settlement System in the European North of Russia. Regionology = Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2021; 29(3):642-665. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.116.029.202103.642-665

REFERENCES

1. Sekushina I.A. Urbanisation in Russia and the Importance of Small and Medium-Sized Cities in the Development of Rural Areas. Traektoriya nauki = Path of Science. 2018; 4(8):2009-2016. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.22178/pos.37-4

2. Kolomak E.A. Russian Urban System. Region: ehkonomika i sotsiologiya = Region: Economics and Sociology. 2016; (1):233-248. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.15372/REG20160110

3. Hackmann A., Klarl T. The Evolution of Zipf's Law for U.S. Cities. Regional Science. 2020; 99(3):841-852. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12498

4. Ye X., Xie Y. Re-examination of Zipf’s Law and Urban Dynamic in China: A Regional Approach. The Annals of Regional Science. 2012; 49:135-156. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0442-8

5. Wu J.-X., He L.-Y. How Do Chinese Cities Grow? A Distribution Dynamics Approach. Physica A. 2017; 470:105-118. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.11.112

6. Gangopadhyay K., Basu B. City Size Distributions for India and China. Physica A. 2009; 388:2682-2688. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2009.03.019

7. Matlaba V.J., Holmes M.J., McCann P., Poot J. A Century of the Evolution of the Urban System in Brazil. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies. 2013; 25:129-151. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12012

8. Chen Y. Zipf's law, 1/f Noise, and Fractal Hierarchy. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. 2012; 45(1):63-73. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2011.10.001

9. Ezzahid E., El Hamdani O. Zipf’s Law in the Case of Moroccan Cities. Review of Urban & Regional Policy Studies. 2015; 27(2):118-133. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12036

10. Gligor L., Gligor M. The Fractal City Theory Revisited: New Empirical Evidence from the Distribution of Romanian Cities and Towns. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, And Life Sciences. 2008; 12(1):15-28. Available at: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18157925/ (accessed 16.03.2021). (In Eng.)

11. Simini F., James C. Testing Heaps’ Law for Cities using Administrative and Gridded Population Data Sets. EPJ Data Science. 2019; 8. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-019-0203-y

12. Moura N.J., Ribeiro M.B. Zipf Law for Brazilian Cities. Physica A. 2006; 367:441-448. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.11.038

13. Perez E., Guzman-Vargas L., Angulo-Brown F. Distributions of City Sizes in Mexico during the 20th Century. Chaos Solitons & Fractals. 2015; 73:64-70. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2014.12.015

14. Silveira-Neto R., Silva D. Population Dynamics and Spatial Dependence: Evidence from Brazilian Cities. The Official Journal of the Southern Regional Science Association. 2019; 49(3):454-473. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.11127

15. Black D., Vernon-Henderson J. Urban Evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography. 2003; 3(4):343-372. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbg017

16. Arshad S., Hu Sh., Ashraf B.N. Zipf''s Law and City Size Distribution: A Survey of the Literature and Future Research Agenda. Physica A. 2018; 492:75-92. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.10.005

17. Fattakhov R.V., Nizamutdinov M.M., Oreshnikov V.V. Analysing and Modelling of Trends in the Development of the Territorial Settlement System in Russia. Ehkonomika regiona = Economy of Region. 2019; 15(2):436-450. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.17059/2019-2-10

18. Makarova M.N. Small Towns in the Spatial Structure of Regional Population Distribution. Ehkonomicheskie i sotsialnye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2017; 10(2):181-194. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2017.2.50.10

19. Stroev P.V. Spatial Organization of the Russian Economy: Problems and Solutions. Ehkonomika Severo-Zapada: problemy i perspektivy razvitiya = Economy of the North-West: Problems and Development Prospects. 2015; (4):14-25. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=25805425 (accessed 16.03.2021). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

20. Kolomak E.A. What does Tell a Deviation from Zipf's Law? ECO. 2016; (11):121-128. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2016-11-121-128

21. Rastvortseva S.N., Manaeva I.V. Zipf's Law in Russian cities. Analysis of New Indicators. Ehkonomika regiona = Economy of Region. 2020; 16(3):935-947. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-3-20

22. Pavlov Yu.V. Regional Settlement System Balance: Assessment under Zipf’s Law and Impact on the Regional Development. Voprosy territorialnogo razvitiya = Territorial Development Issues. 2020; 8(2). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.15838/tdi.2020.2.52.1

23. Kabanov V.N. Territorial Planning and Zipf's Law. Ehkonomicheskie i sotsialnye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2019; (2):103-114. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2019.2.62.6

24. Sekushina I.A. Trends in Socio-Economic Development of Small and Medium-Sized Cities in the Regions of the European North of Russia. Nauchnoe obozrenie. Seriya 1. Ehkonomika i pravo = Scientific Review. Series 1: Economics and Law. 2019; (5):73-90. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.26653/2076-4650-2019-5-07

25. Giesen K., Sudekum J. Zipf''s Law for Cities in the Regions and the Country. Journal of Economic Geography. 2010; 11(4):667-686. (In Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbq019

26. Ilyin V.I. People in the Old Russian North: between Free Will and Structural Coercion (A Historical Essay in Terms of Existential Sociology). Mir Rossii = Universe of Russia. 2020; (3):6-27. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/1811-038X-2020-29-3-6-27

Submitted 29.03.2021; approved after reviewing 31.05.2021; accepted for publication 09.06.2021.

About the author:

Irina A. Sekushina, Research Assistant, Department for Socio-Economic Development and Administration in Territorial Systems, Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56a Gorkogo St., Vologda 160014, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4216-4850, i_sekushina@mail.ru

The author has read and approved the final version of the manuscript.

To download article