L.N. Lipatova. Features of the Demographic Development of Rural Areas in Russia in a Pandemic

UDК 314.122(1-22)(470+571) 

DOI: 10.15507/2413-1407.118.030.202201.155-177


Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact on the main components of demographic dynamics: mortality has increased everywhere, migration has practically stopped. In this regard, it is relevant to assess the contribution of international migration to the formation of the population of rural areas of Russia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current demographic situation in rural areas of the Russian Federation and propose measures to minimize the consequences of the pandemic.

Materials and Methods. The data of Rosstat (the Federal State Statistics Service), government bodies of the Russian Federation, international organizations, publications of scientists studying the problems of the population were used. To summarize literary sources content analysis was used. The study of demographic dynamics was carried out using the methods of statistical analysis, tabular method, generalization and interpretation of the obtained results.

Results. The study reveals that the pandemic has had a negative impact on the demographic situation in rural areas and may have a delayed negative effect due to a sharp decline in the number of foreign migrants. The risks of death for people living in rural areas are increasing due to the large proportion of older people in its composition, as well as the lower physical accessibility of medical services. The analysis makes it possible to establish that the main factor in the reproduction of the rural population of the Russian Federation in 1990 – 2018 made by international migration. The sanitary restrictions introduced in 2020 and significantly extended for 2021 can have a significant impact on the reproduction of the rural population of our country, as well as its labor potential. Measures are proposed to minimize the impact of the pandemic on the reproduction of the rural population.

Discussion and Conclusion. The study shows that the only factor that has a positive impact on the demographic dynamics in rural areas of the Russian Federation is international migration, which has sharply decreased in the context of the pandemic. The practical significance of the study is the possibility of using its results when adjusting federal and regional programs aimed at stabilizing the demographic situation in rural areas of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: pandemic, rural areas, factors of demographic dynamics, excess mortality, migration outflow, capacity of medical institutions, accessibility of medical services, regional programs for attracting migrants

The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.

For citation: Lipatova L.N. Features of the Demographic Development of Rural Areas in Russia in a Pandemic. Regionology = Russian Journal of Regional Studies. 2022; 30(1):155-177. doi: https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.118.030.202201.155-177


1. Frejka T., Zakharov S. Fertility Trends in Russia During the Past Half Century: Period and Cohort Perspectives. Demograficheskoe obozrenie = Demographic Review. 2014; (1):106-143. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1828

2. Arkhangelsky V.N., Zinkina Yu.V., Shulgin S.G. Age Structure as a Factor of the Future Population Dynamics. Narodonaselenie = Population. 2018; 21(2):18-33. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.26653/1561-7785-2018-21-2-02

3. Arkhangelsky V.N. Fertility in Real Generations of Russian Women: Trends and Regional Differences. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo = Economics, Taxes & Law. 2019; 12(2):59-69. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2019-12-2-59-69

4. Yelizarov V.V., Arkhangelskiy V.N., Dzhanayeva N.G. Differentiation of Assessments of Significance of Measures of Assistance to Families with Children. Uroven zhizni naselenija regionov Rossii = Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2019; 15(4):85-96. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.24411/1999-9836-2019-10084

5. Penina O., Jdanov D.A., Grigoriev P. Producing Reliable Mortality Estimates in the Context of Distorted Population Statistics: The Case of Moldova. MPIDR Working Paper WP 2015-011. Rostock; 2015. Available at: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-011.pdf (accessed 02.04.2021). (In Eng.)

6. Muradov S. Demographic Trends in Azerbaijan on the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century. Sociological Research. 2001; 40(3):34-43. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.2753/SOR1061-0154400334

7. Agadjanian V., Makarova E. From Soviet Modernization to Post-Soviet Transformation: Understanding Marriage and Fertility Dynamics in Uzbekistan. Development and Change. 2002; 34(3):447-473. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7660.00314

8. Cleuziou J. A Second Wife is not really a Wife’: Polygyny, Gender Relations and Economic Realities in Tajikistan. Central Asia Survey. 2015; 36(1):76-90. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/02634937.2015.1088228

9. Shemyakina O. Patterns in Female age at First Marriage and Tajik Armed Conflict. European Journal of Population. 2013; 29(3):303-343. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-013-9289-2

10. Dommaraju P., Agadjanian V. Nuptiality in Soviet and Post-Soviet Central Asia. Asian Population Studies. 2008; 4(2):195-213. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730802247463

11. Agadjanian V. Post-Soviet Paradoxes: Ethnic Diff erences in Marriage and Fertility in Kazakhstan. Sociological Forum. 1999; 14(3):425-446. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021447602704

12. Nedoluzhko L., Agadjanian V. Between Tradition and Modernity: Marriage Dynamics in Kyrgyzstan. Demography. 2015; 52(3):861-882. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0393-2

13. Werner C. Bride Abduction in Post-Soviet Central Asia: Marking a Shift Towards Patriarchy Through Local Discourses of Shame and Tradition. Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute. 2009; 15(2):314-331. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9655.2009.01555.x

14. Katus K., Puur A., Sakkeus L. Family Formation in Baltic Countries: A Transformation in the Legacy of State Socialism. Journal of Baltic Studies. 2008; 39(2):123-156. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01629770802031218

15. Padilla B., Ortiz A. Migration Flows in Portugal: From Migration Boom to Slowdown in Context of Crisis. Balance and Challenges. Revista Interdisciplinar da Mobilidade Humana. 2012; 20(39):159-184. (In Portugal) doi: https://doi.org/10.1590/S1980-85852012000200009

16. Drbohlav D., Lachmanova-Medova L., Čermak Z., Janska E., Čermakova D., Dzurova D. The Czech Republic: On its Way from Emigration to Immigration Country. IDEA Working Papers. 2009; (11). Available at: https://is.muni.cz/el/1423/jaro2004/SOC732/um/Drbohlav_et.al._2009._The_Czech_Republic.On_its_way_from_emigration_to_immigration_country.pdf (accessed 02.04.2021). (In Eng.)

17. Chagnon J. Migration: International, 2010 and 2011. Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada. Component of Statistics Canada. 2013. Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/91-209-x/2013001/article/11787-eng.pdf?st=TR9vONsi (accessed 02.04.2021). (In Eng.)

18. Navarro A., Tapiador F. J. RUSEM: A Numerical Model for Policymaking and Climate Applications. Ecological Economics. 2019; 165. (In Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106403

19. Ribakovskiy L.L. Migration Policy in the Context of National Interests of Russia. Uroven zhizni naselenija regionov Rossii = Living Standarts of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2011; (12):35-43. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=17100554 (accessed 08.02.2021). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

20. Rybakovsky О.L., Tayunova О.А. Objectives of the Russian Migration Development. Narodonaselenie = Population. 2018; (1):22-30. Available at: https://www.jour.fnisc.ru/index.php/population/article/view/6606/6507 (accessed 09.01.2021). (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

21. Ryazantsev S.V. Modern Migration Policy of Russia: Challenges and Approaches to Improvement. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological Studies. 2019; (9):117-126. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.31857/S013216250006666-5

22. Pankin P.V. Migration Impact on the Labor Market in Russia. Jekonomika i biznes: teorija i praktika = Journal of Economy and Business. 2020; (11):47-49. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.24411/2411-0450-2018-10148

23. Vakhaev Kh.M., Alekseev S.V. Labour Migration and the National Security of Russia. Pravo i bezopasnost = Law and Security. 2011; (3-4):76-86. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=17714733 (accessed 19.10.2020) (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

24. Gavrilova T.M. Influence of Migratory Processes on Economic Security of Russia. Nacionalnye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost = National Interests: Priorities and Security. 2011; (27):67-74. Available at: https://www.fin-izdat.ru/journal/national/detail.php?ID=41855 (accessed 19.10.2020) (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

25. Volokh V.A., Suvorova V.A. The State Migration Policy Concept of Russia: Basis for the Migration Security of the State. Nacionalnaja bezopasnost = Security Issues. 2013; (3):1-16. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) doi: https://doi.org/10.7256/2306-0417.2013.3.713

26. Dementyev N.V. External Labour Migration as the Indicator of Eсonomic Safety of Russia. Socialno-jekonomicheskie javlenija i processy = Social-Economic Phenomena and Processes. 2011; (7):38-41. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=17251262 (accessed 19.10.2020) (In Russ., abstract in Eng.)

Submitted 11.05.2021; approved after reviewing 20.07.2021; accepted for publication 02.08.2021.

About the author:

Lyudmila N. Lipatova, Professor, Department of Economics, North-West Institute of Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (57/43 Sredny Prospect VO, St. Petersburg 199178, Russian Federation), Dr. Sci. (Sociology), Cand. Sci. (Economics), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9357-6708ln.lipatova@yandex.ru

The author has read and approved the final version of the manuscript.

To download article


Лицензия Creative Commons
All the materials of the "REGIONOLOGY" journal are available under Creative Commons «Attribution» 4.0